Resumo

SIKOV, Anna; CERDA HERNANDEZ, José Javier  e  HARO ABANTO, Marcial Eduardo. Is it possible to obtain reliable estimates for the prevalence of anemia and childhood stunting among children under 5 in the poorest districts in Peru?. Apuntes [online]. 2023, vol.50, n.95, pp.171-202.  Epub 31-Dez-2023. ISSN 0252-1865.  http://dx.doi.org/10.21678/apuntes.95.1811.

In this article we describe and apply the Fay-Herriot model with spatially correlated random area effects (Pratesi, M., & Salvati, N. (2008)), in order to predict the prevalence of anemia and childhood stunting in Peruvian districts, based on the data from the Demographic and Family Health Survey of the year 2019, which collects data about anemia and childhood stunting for children under the age of 12 years, and the National Census carried out in 2017. Our main objective is to produce reliable predictions for the districts, where sample sizes are too small to provide good direct estimates, and for the districts, which were not included in the sample. The basic Fay-Herriot model (Fay & Herriot, 1979) tackles this problem by incorporating auxiliary information, which is generally available from administrative or census records. The Fay-Herriot model with spatially correlated random area effects, in addition to auxiliary information, incorporates geographic information about the areas, such as latitude and longitude. This permits modeling spatial autocorrelations, which are not unusual in socioeconomic and health surveys. To evaluate the mean square error of the above-mentioned predictors, we use the parametric bootstrap procedure, developed in Molina et al. (2009).

Palavras-chave : Direct estimate; spatial autocorrelation; Fay-Herriot model; random area effects.

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