Abstract

GOMEZ HINOJOSA, Paúl et al. Accuracy of ASGE predictors in diagnosis of coledocolithiasis in a public hospital of Lima, Peru. Rev. gastroenterol. Perú [online]. 2018, vol.38, n.1, pp.22-28. ISSN 1022-5129.

Background: The predictors proposed by the American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) are commonly used to predict the presence and management of choledocholithiasis. Objective: To evaluate the performance and precision of the predictors of choledocholithiasis proposed by ASGE. Materials and methods: Prospective and longitudinal study performed at a third level hospital during January 2015 to June 2017. All patients with high and intermediate probability of choledocholithiasis who underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) were included according to the criteria proposed by the ASGE. Results: A total of 246 patients with suspected choledocholithiasis were analyzed. Of the 228 patients with high probability criteria 144 (63.2% = performance) had choledocholithiasis in ERCP with an accuracy of 62% (sensitivity: 94.1% and specificity: 9.7%). Among the 18 patients with intermediate probability criteria, 9 (50% = performance) had choledocholithiasis with an accuracy of 38% (sensitivity: 5.9% and specificity: 90.3%). In the multivariate analysis, the presence of stone in the bile duct by ultrasonography (OR: 1.937, 95% CI 1.048-3.580, p=0.035) and age 55 and over (OR: 2.121, 95% CI, 1.101-4.088, p=0.025) were the strongest predictors for choledocholithiasis. Conclusions: The application of the criteria of the ASGE to predict the probability of choledocholithiasis, in our population has a performance greater than 50%, however, it is necessary to improve these parameters to avoid an unnecessary performance of ERCP.

Keywords : Choledocholithiasis; Cholangitis; Cholangiopancreatography, endoscopic retrograde.

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