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Quipukamayoc
versão impressa ISSN 1560-9103versão On-line ISSN 1609-8196
Resumo
ESPINOZA IPANAQUE, Paul Christian. Inflation in Peru as a response to international energy and food prices shocks. Quipukamayoc [online]. 2023, vol.31, n.65, pp.41-52. Epub 31-Jul-2023. ISSN 1560-9103. http://dx.doi.org/10.15381/quipu.v31i65.24508.
Objective:
To determine the contribution of international energy and food price shocks in Peru’s inflation during the period 2002-2022.
Method:
A structural autoregressive vector model (SVAR) was estimated following the reflection of Blanchard and Quah so that it reflected the behavior of a small and open economy such as Peru's. In addition, the Granger causality test, cumulative impulse-response functions, and variance decomposition were used to achieve the goal.
Results:
The oil, grain and fertilizer price shocks are weakly inflationary, while the ocean freight shocks are weakly deflationary. In addition, these shocks explain slightly the need for inflation.
Conclusion:
In the long term, the contribution of international energy and food price shocks on domestic inflammation has been significant and permanent; however, the effects are weak and heterogeneous. This would be associated with good management of monetary policy by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru.
Palavras-chave : price index; commodities; shocks; structural VAR.