Resumo

DELGADO, Tania  e  SUAREZ-DUQUE, David. The effects of climate change on vegetative diversity in the El Angel Ecological Reserve-Golondrinas Protected Forest community conservation corridor in northern Ecuador. Ecol. apl. [online]. 2009, vol.8, n.1-2, pp.27-36. ISSN 1726-2216.

In order to estimate the impact of climate change on the El Angel Ecological Reserve - Golondrinas Protected Forest community conservation corridor, potential distribution models generated using MARS of 413 vegetative species were applied using 19 Worldclim bioclimatic variables for current climate, and for the year 2080, these same variables were estimated according to the HadCM3-A2 general circulation model. Based on this information, richness maps were developed for the present and for 2080. In the area of the corridor, zones were identified where changes in richness were predicted, where species could potentially colonize, or where species could become extinct. This allows the determination of the level of disturbance that the ecosystems will suffer with climate change. The general tendency of the species studied shows that they will colonize higher altitudes thus changing the structures of current natural ecosystems. All of this information demonstrates that to deal with potential impacts on the flora of mountain ecosystems it will be necessary to create corridors that will connect protected areas located at differing altitudes and thus permit species migration that will in turn conserve biodiversity.

Palavras-chave : corridors; potential distribution models; climate change; species turnover.

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