Abstract

DEL AGUILA RIOS, Sandra  and  MEJIA MARCACUZCO, Jesús Abel. Stochastic Modeling of Pisco / Peru River discharges for water supply purposes. Ecol. apl. [online]. 2020, vol.19, n.2, pp.77-85. ISSN 1726-2216.  http://dx.doi.org/10.21704/rea.v19i2.1558.

Stochastic modeling of the discharges of a river is important because it allows predicting its behavior in the future, becoming a tool for managing water resources. In this sense, the objective of the work was to model the average annual discharges of the Pisco / Ica / Peru River using the program MAR1 - Autoregressive model of order 1, through the analysis of its time series, to simulate and quantify its availability as part of the Hydrological Ecosystem Service (SEH) of provision for different uses. The statistics of the series, parameters of the model and the adjustment to theoretical probability distributions, were obtained with the use of the MAR1 program, which is a computational code in MATLAB R2016a developed specifically for this work, with which the outputs of downloads were tabulated and graphed of the successive simulations carried out. The results indicate that the autoregressive model of order 1 adjusted to the Gamma distribution is the most appropriate to model the annual discharges of the Pisco River, because it reports the lowest value of the root of the mean square error (RSME). The tests of goodness of statistical and graphic adjustment report equality between historical and simulated statistics, verifying the principle of randomness in the residuals of the simulated series. In addition, in the evaluation of the provision SEH, the availability of surface water for storage purposes was estimated, demonstrating the tendency to decrease the discharge volumes of the Pisco River.

Keywords : stochastic models; autoregressive models; simulation; water resources.

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