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Revista Peruana de Medicina Experimental y Salud Publica

versión impresa ISSN 1726-4634

Resumen

JUAREZ S, José et al. Assessing the definition of probable cases during the dengue fever outbreak in Lima, 2005. Rev. perú. med. exp. salud publica [online]. 2005, vol.22, n.3, pp. 205-211. ISSN 1726-4634.

Objective: To assess diagnostic usefulness of the probable case of classic dengue fever for identifying definite cases during the outbreak in Comas District, April - May 2005. Materials and methods: Observational and analytical non-controlled cross-sectional study. Suspected dengue fever cases from Comas District were included. These persons also had results for viral isolation or IgM ELISA, according to their time of being ill (4 days or e5 days, respectively), laboratory studies were performed at Peruvian National Institute of Health. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the definition of a probable case of classic dengue fever, including its symptoms, taking as a gold standard viral isolation or IgM ELISA. Results: 316 patients were included, and 137 (43,4%) of them were confirmed as dengue fever cases. Viral isolation was achieved in 60 patients. Probable dengue fever case definition for patients being ill for d4 days had a 85% sensitivity, 13,40% specificity, 13,18% positive predictive value, and 74,29% negative predictive value. 77 patients who were ill for five days or more were diagnosed using IgM ELISA, and the probable dengue fever case definition for these patients had a 68,42% sensitivity, 13,40 specificity, positive predictive value, 68,42%, and 46,67% negative predictive value. Conclusions: probable case definition used in the dengue fever outbreak in Comas District, as well as the assessment of individual symptoms, has good sensitivity, but poor specificity.

Palabras llave : Dengue; Outbreak; Epidemiologic surveillance; Sensibility; Specificity; Predictive value (source:DeCS BIREME).

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