Abstract

CANTU, Francisco. A forensic analysis of Bolivia’s 2008 and 2016 Presidential Referenda. Elecciones [online]. 2023, vol.22, n.25, pp.111-150.  Epub June 30, 2023. ISSN 1994-5272.  http://dx.doi.org/10.53557/elecciones.2023.v22n25.04.

Intentional or not, anomalies in the vote results often raise skepticism and unease in developing democracies. This paper evaluates the prevalence of these irregularities before and after introducing a biometric voter registration system in Bolivia. In particular, I employ different forensic tests to identify inconsistencies in the results of the 2008 Recall Referendum and the 2016 Term-Limit referendum. Analyzing these two referenda allows me to compare different patterns in the results before and after implementing this technology. The forensics test center on two of the concerns raised by international observers and opposition parties at the time: (1) artificial increases in the number of votes toward the official party and (2) inflated voter rolls. The results suggest that the new registration system decreased the opportunities for observing irregularities and that when present, each irregularity appeared as a function of the opposition’s strength to monitor and prevent them.

Keywords : Recall Referendum; electoral integrity; electoral legitimacy.

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