Resumen

CARPIO VARGAS, Edgar Eloy  y  TITO CCOPA, Enrique. Production scales and risk level of the trunk producer, PUNO-PERU. Comuni@cción [online]. 2017, vol.8, n.2, pp.81-93. ISSN 2219-7168.

The study is oriented at determining the production scales and the level of risk of the trout producer of the Puno region; the method was quantitative and the descriptive-correlational and explanatory type. The population for the risk was 704 productive units registered in 2015 and by non-random sampling, 175 units were determined as a sample. The instruments were: collection form, questionnaire, records of the Fishing Area (Regional Directorate of Production), and effective rates of the Superintendency of Banking and Insurance. Statistical methods: descriptive statistics, logistic regression, logarithmic regression and Monte Carlo simulation. The risk of loss is the response variable and the independent variables are the technical and financial market risks, adapted to the level of productive scale. The results show that the productive scales must be classified in 5: subsistence, lower initial scale, intermediate scale, advanced scale and larger scale. The productive scale with the highest production is the largest scale; the systems of raising are the artisanal systems in the scales of the E1 until the E4 and metallic in the greater production (E5). The estimated investment for the subsistence scale is S /. 8,581.3 and for larger scale S /. 262,969; the recovery period without discount is between the sixth year for the lowest level and the second year for the highest level. In conclusion, the level of risk of loss is on a smaller scale, greater capital loss and, on a larger scale, less capital loss. It is recommended to produce trout on a large scale, through producing associations

Palabras clave : Productive scales; estimated investment; sensitivity analysis; risk of loss; production; Logistic regression.

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