Resumo

ESPINOLA-SANCHEZ, Marcos et al. Covid-19 pandemic and effect of containment measures in the peruvian population: a SIR mathematical modeling. Rev. Cuerpo Med. HNAAA [online]. 2020, vol.13, n.2, pp.110-115.  Epub 30-Jun-2020. ISSN 2225-5109.  http://dx.doi.org/10.35434/rcmhnaaa.2020.132.656.

Introduction: The evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic varies in each population; it has been complicating health systems worldwide. Objective: to analyze the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic, estimating the effect of the containment measures practiced in Peru. Material and Method: The SIR epidemiological mathematical modeling was applied, estimating the COVID-19 evolution in our population. Data analysis was performed following the SIR mathematical model with defined ordinary differential equations to simulate epidemiological behavior; and it was executed in the RStudio programming language. Results: Containment measures decreased the propagation rate, reducing 30% of infected cases until the peak day of infection; however, it is still above the effective reproductive number to control the epidemic and it shows an erratic trend, the result of government actions being 61% in the practice of containment measures. Conclusions: Containment measures are necessary if strategies are considered to make their role effective in our population.

Palavras-chave : Pandemics; coronavirus infections; transmission; basic reproduction number; Peru.

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