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Revista de la Facultad de Medicina Humana

Print version ISSN 1814-5469On-line version ISSN 2308-0531


GORDILLO-CORTAZA, Janet DR et al. Evaluation of the discriminative capacity of anthropometric indicators and their predictive relationship of diabetes in health workers of the University Hospital of Guayaquil - Ecuador. Rev. Fac. Med. Hum. [online]. 2021, vol.21, n.3, pp.486-493. ISSN 1814-5469.


To evaluate the discriminative ability to predict diabetes with anthropometric and biochemical indicators and medical history.


The sampling carried out was census and the sample consisted of 104 workers. A longitudinal study was carried out to evaluate the discriminative ability to predict diabetes with the anthropometric, biochemical, and antecedent indicators, using two models, the analysis of the ROC curves and binary logistic regression.


By analyzing the ROC curves, the abdominal circumference obtained greater predictive discriminative power (AUC = 0.747; p <0.001; CI: 0.624-0.870), compared to glycemia (AUC=0.749; p <0.001; CI: 0.645-0.852) and the waist-height index (AUC=0.737; p=0.001; CI: 0.638-0.836). Personal medical history is included in the logistic regression equation P(Y=1)=(1+e0,693+1,897APP)-1to predict the risk of developing diabetes in the future.


The abdominal circumference obtained the highest discriminative power, followed by the pathological history.

Keywords : Mellitus; Forecasting; Risk (source: DeCs BIREME).

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