Resumo

MEZA-SEGURA, José  e  LUYO-KUONG, Jaime. Residential demand forecasting methodology for long-Term energy planning in Peru. Tecnia [online]. 2020, vol.30, n.2, pp.33-45. ISSN 0375-7765.  http://dx.doi.org/10.21754/tecnia.v30i2.862.

Worldwide there are demand projection models that serve as the basis for energy planning. However, as most of these models belong to developed countries, these models must be evaluated, complemented and improved in order to identify the methodology that best adapts to the particularities of a developing country such as Peru and at the same time complies with the challenges posed by current energy systems such as: the emergence of disruptive technologies and an international context in the fight against climate change. The objective of this article is to define a methodology for projection of demand in the residential sector integrating end-use models through stock rotation and the substitution model through multi-criteria evaluation, for which the factors of net present value, cost have been identified. of investment, quality of presentation and environmental impact in the model through the multi-criteria evaluation so that the levels of penetration and regression are obtained by sources and technologies, to finally be integrated into the LEAP energy modeling software and thus evaluate all the Peruvian energy matrix as a whole. The methodology was applied to the case study of the residential sector in Peru and both the evolution of the park of energy consumption equipment was determined; the level of substitution by source and technology; as well as its comparison with the results obtained through econometric and end-use optimization models.

Palavras-chave : residential demand; stock turnover; substitution; multicriteria; GHG mitigation.

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