Abstract

LEON OCHOA, Ricardo F; PORTUGUEZ MAURTUA, Domingo M  and  CHAVARRI VELARDE, Eduardo A. Modeling water availability on the Piura river basin - Peru, assessing the impacts of climate change. Rev. investig. Altoandin. [online]. 2019, vol.21, n.3, pp.182-193. ISSN 2313-2957.  http://dx.doi.org/10.18271/ria.2019.476.

This research evaluated climate change impacts on the streamflow offer in the middle and up-per Piura river basin in Peru using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) by the middle of the 21s century. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for a period of 23 years (1986 - 2008) with daily weather data at six locations and monthly streamflow data at one location. For future evaluation, the HADGEM2- ES and CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, global climate models (GCM), climate data by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were adopted. The future biased data (2025‐2054) were corrected using weather data of baseline period, and downscaled by the statistical method of MarkSim weather generator. The temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios projected an average increase of + 2.9°C and 39.3%, respectively, compared to the baseline condition. The future evapotranspiration showed a general tendency to decrease, with a slight increase in the north western region of the basin. In particular, the average trend of monthly streamflow to 2050s, in the four scenarios, indicates an increase of +71.8%, approx. 55.9 m³/s, from October to April with the highest increase in November. Whereas, from May to September, there is a decrease of -66.1%, approx. 12 m³/s, with the largest decrease in July

Keywords : Climate Change; CMIP5; General Circulation Models; Hydrological Modeling; SWAT.

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